The Republican candidates for the US Senate received bad news in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan: According to a new poll, their Democratic opponents are ahead.
The Democrats currently hold a majority in the Senate, but only by a narrow margin. The upper chamber is made up of 47 Democrats, four independents who caucus with the Democrats, and 49 Republicans. With such a narrow majority, there is a lot at stake in the Senate elections in November.
A New York Times/An Aug. 6-9 Siena College poll showed Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, a three-term Democratic incumbent, leading his Republican challenger David McCormick, a hedge fund manager and former Treasury Department official under the George W. Bush administration, by 14 percentage points (50 percent to 36 percent) among 693 registered voters in the state. The margin of error for this sample of voters is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
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In Wisconsin, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, in office since 2013, is 8 percentage points ahead of her Republican opponent, businessman Eric Hovde, according to the Just/Siena poll. A total of 661 registered voters in the state were surveyed from August 5 to 8. The margin of error of the sample was plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
The race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers for a vacant Senate seat in Michigan is a much closer race, according to Just/Siena survey.
Slotkin received 42 percent of the vote and Rogers 41 percent when 619 registered voters in Michigan were surveyed from August 5 to 8. The margin of error of the sample was plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.
Newsweek I reached out to Casey, McCormick, Baldwin, Hovde and Slotkin’s campaigns via email and to Rogers’ campaign via an online form on Saturday afternoon for comment.
What do other surveys show?
The Commonwealth Foundation, a nonpartisan organization that seeks to educate Pennsylvanians on important issues, conducted a poll between July 23 and 25 that found Casey will have a narrower lead over McCormick. Of the 800 Pennsylvania registered voters surveyed, 51 percent said they would vote for Casey and 40 percent said McCormick. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
A Marquette Law School poll conducted July 24-August 1 found Baldwin supported by 53 percent and Hovde by 46 percent of Wisconsin’s 877 registered voters. The poll’s margin of error for registered voters was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
According to an Emerson College/The Hill poll conducted July 22-23, Slotkin received 45 percent of the vote and Rogers received 41 percent. The poll surveyed 800 Michigan residents and has a credibility margin, similar to a margin of error, of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
