Here they are, laid out clearly in the Baseball Writers Association of America’s instructions to voters, for those who would like to rip off Shohei Ohtani as he tries to win his third MVP award in four years.
The BBWAA begins its list of five criteria, which are still the same as in the first vote in 1931, with the “actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength in attack and defense.”
Ohtani is recovering from serious elbow surgery and isn’t playing his version of defense this season, instead stepping up as a top-notch starting pitcher. But he’s still the favorite to win National League MVP because his offense is so much better than everyone else’s.
No primary DH has ever won an MVP award. However, the BBWAA’s instructions make it clear that pitchers and designated hitters are eligible. They also state, “There is no clear definition of what Most Valuable means.”
In other words, voters can choose whoever they want, for whatever reasoning they want. But the process is completely transparent. For each award, the BBWAA discloses the ballots of all 30 voters, two from each city in each respective league. So voters must be prepared to defend their selections, and most are aware of the repercussions that questionable choices can generate on social media.
Ohtani is once again a unique case. He entered Tuesday’s game with 41 home runs and 40 stolen bases in 44 attempts, making him the sixth 40-40 player in AL/NL history. His latest milestone comes in part from walking more after moving his Los Angeles Dodgers teammate Mookie Betts, who suffered a broken left hand on June 16 and was out for nearly two months, to the first batting position.
Major League Baseball implemented rules last season to improve base stealing, but no player managed 45-45, let alone 50-50. In the likely event that Ohtani makes history, he will be tough to beat — just as Aaron Judge was tough to beat in the AL after his record-setting 62-home run season in 2022, even though Ohtani had 34 home runs and an OPS of .875 as a hitter and a 2.33 ERA in 166 innings as a pitcher.
In MVP races, the eligibility criteria change frequently. Voters generally base their decisions on a number of statistics, including wins over replacement players, an estimate of a player’s combined offensive, defensive and baserunning value – in a way that is calculated differently on different websites.
However, many voters are also influenced by narratives. There is one narrative that speaks for Ohtani: the unicorn narrative. He is unbelievable, nobody does what he can. But there could also be two narratives that speak against him: the anti-DH narrative. There is no way I will vote for half a player! And the story of Ohtani fatigue. Let’s find someone else.
The anti-DH narrative did not stop David Ortiz from finishing in the top five five times in a row between 2003 and 2007, including two top three finishes. Frank Thomas (1991, 2000), Paul Molitor (1993), Edgar Martinez (1995), Victor Martinez (2014) and Yordan Alvarez were the other DHs to finish in the top three.
Right now, Ohtani isn’t even the only strong DH candidate in the NL. Marcell Ozuna of the Atlanta Braves leads the NL in batting average and RBIs, and is pretty close behind Ohtani in slugging, OPS, and adjusted OPS+, which takes ballpark factors into account. Still, primary DHs have an undeniable handicap in the voting. Otherwise, one of them would have won the award already.
But who are realistic alternatives to Ohtani?
The first challenger was Betts, whose move to shortstop and outstanding hitting skills made him an early favorite for MVP. That changed when Dan Altavilla of the Kansas City Royals broke Betts’ hand with a 97.9 mph fastball on June 16, knocking him out of action for 45 games. After his return on August 12, Betts moved back to right field.
Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte then delivered a strong performance, but was sidelined by a left ankle sprain that limited him to six at-bats since August 8 and kept him on the injured list since August 19.
The latest threat to Ohtani is New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, who is approaching 30-30 and is one of the top shortstops on defense due to his above-average outs, but only has a slightly above-average defensive runs saved rating.
Lindor was ahead of Ohtani (6.6-6.2) in FanGraphs’ version of WAR through Monday, but trailed him and Marte (6.6-6.0-5.8) in Baseball Reference’s version. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello, a leading statistical analyst, cautions against putting too much emphasis on the tiny decimal points of WAR, saying the differences are so small that the players’ numbers are virtually identical. The discrepancies in the two sites’ calculations stem from the fact that FanGraphs bases its defensive component on Ultimate Zone Rating and Baseball-Reference bases its defensive component on Defensive Runs Saved.
The difficulty of measuring defense makes it harder to evaluate a player’s defensive performance in MVP voting. Obviously, Lindor and Marte do more on defense than Ohtani. Lindor is a candidate for his first NL Gold Glove. He hasn’t missed a game, while Ohtani has missed three. But is that enough to offset Ohtani’s 168-point lead in OPS going into Tuesday’s game?
Ohtani also had a significant lead over Lindor in extra win probability, a category led by San Diego Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar, another potential top-10 MVP. Extra win probability measures the importance of a particular at-bat appearance, stolen base or player caught stealing, and quantifies the percentage change in a team’s odds of winning from one event to the next.
While Ohtani’s attempts to steal bases have increased significantly over the course of the season – he had 18 totals in the first three months, followed by 14 in July and 12 so far in August – his motivation seems to come more from a desire to help his team than to pad his numbers. All of his attempts to steal bases in August made sense in the context of the game.
There is still a month left in the season. The race for the NL MVP could still change. Maybe Marte will return and lead the Diamondbacks past the Dodgers to the NL West title. Maybe Lindor will continue his wonderful play since mid-May and lead the Mets past the Braves to their third NL wild card.
A primary DH being voted MVP would be difficult for some to accept, even if the instructions to voters explicitly allow for that possibility. However, a DH should only win if he separates himself enough offensively to make up for his lack of contribution defensively.
Ohtani is pretty close at 40-40. At 45-45 or 50-50 he would pretty much end the conversation.
(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani: Skalij / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
