Winter is upon us – and it’s going to be wetter than usual, the Farmers’ Almanac predicts. Temperatures will be average or even warmer across much of the country, but the central U.S. and Great Lakes states will be colder.
Long-term experts predict warm autumn for the USA
The transition to fall will be slow in most parts of the country this year, and warm temperatures are expected to last well into fall.
After the warmest winter on record, the coming winter is expected to be wetter and milder in most parts of the United States, according to the Farmers’ Almanac.
The Farmers’ Almanac’s 208th edition, out now, predicts a “wet winter vortex” for the upcoming 2024-2025 winter season. “It’s definitely looking more wet than white in many areas,” Farmers’ Almanac editor Sandi Duncan told USA TODAY. “Obviously, depending on where you live, it could be more white than wet, but we’re focused on the wet winter ahead.”
The climate pattern known as La Niña – which is likely to occur between September and November, according to a recent forecast from the Climate Prediction Center – could lead to a warmer-than-normal winter in much of the country, she said.
Average or above average temperatures are forecast for New England, the Northeast, the Southern Plains, the Southeast and the Atlantic Coast.
“The lowest temperatures are expected to be over the north-central states and the Great Lakes region,” Duncan said.
Most of the country can also expect a rainy Thanksgiving, “except for the far Southwest,” she said. And Christmas “will be wet rather than white in most areas.”
In late January, much of the country is expected to be warned of a “very active storm” that could bring strong and gusty winds and heavy precipitation—“large amounts of snow, rain, sleet and ice (depending on where you live) could fall,” the almanac says.
In the northern, northeastern and central U.S., winter cold is expected to last longer than usual. “So it looks like it’s going to feel like a longer winter, even if it’s a little warmer in certain areas that normally get more snow,” she said.
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Was the Farmers’ Almanac correct with its winter weather forecast last year?
Not if you consider the almanac’s overall forecast, which predicts a cold winter in 2023-2024, as it was the warmest winter on record. However, the almanac notes that some of its predictions were correct, including severe snowstorms and blizzard conditions from Colorado to the Plains that put the Christmas holiday at risk.
The almanac’s forecast matched a weather pattern described by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as “a streak of below-average temperatures across the central part of the country in January.”
The Farmers’ Almanac, launched in 1818, claims that its longtime fans claim the publication’s weather predictions are correct about 80 to 85 percent of the time. It uses “a top-secret mathematical and astronomical formula which takes into account sunspot activity, tidal action, the position of the planet, and many other factors,” the almanac says.
Should you base your plans on the Farmers’ Almanac – or the Old Farmer’s Almanac, due out later this month? Russ Schumacher, a professor and climatologist at Colorado State University, was skeptical, he told the Coloradoan in 2022
“They get attention and get people talking about it. But often they use general phrases that are true almost every year,” he said.
“What does ‘glacial and snowy’ mean in our area? Does that mean we’ll have a few days of really cold weather and some snow? That happens pretty much every winter,” he said.
The Farmers’ Almanac is still an interesting read, and you can find a closer look at the regional winter forecasts here (click on a link to go directly to the forecast for that region).
Northeast, New York | Midwest, Ohio and Michigan | Pacific Northwest | North Central | Southeast, Florida | South Central Texas | California, Southwest
Winter in New England and the Northeast region (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont) will be stormy, with above-average precipitation and near- to above-average temperatures, according to the almanac. “In the mountainous regions, we obviously see a good chance of winter precipitation turning white,” Duncan said.
An early onset of winter is expected, with a coastal storm hitting the Atlantic coast in the first week of December bringing mixed precipitation and then very cold temperatures. Much of New England and New York can expect several inches of snow from a “fast-moving clipper system” in mid-January; the rest of the region will get rain and a wintry mix.
The end of January will be “a very active time” in the region, as a major storm will dump 6 inches of snow in Delaware, Maryland and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, “with slightly less snow in southern New York and New England,” Duncan said.
Snowstorms are forecast into March, with one bringing up to 120 millimeters of snow to northern New York State and central and northern New England in mid-March.
The Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Midwest regions (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) will see periods of wet snow and rain beginning in early November, with temperatures reaching “freezing” through November 11. Rain and wet snow will continue through Thanksgiving, and conditions are expected to become drier toward the end of the year.
“There could probably be a big freeze in this area in January,” Duncan said. With “very, very cold” conditions expected, “if you can plan your trip to the Caribbean, I would go at that time.”
In mid-March, a “fast-moving storm” is expected to bring two to five inches of wet snow to Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and a wintry mix to Kentucky. Cold rain, sleet and wet snow are also forecast for Kentucky, southern Indiana and southern Ohio on April 1.
The Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington) will see plenty of rain, and wet snow will also be present starting in early November. A stormy December could lead to a nice, dry and cold Christmas holiday, and then a nice January.
But a severe storm is expected in early February, bringing heavy snowfall to the Bitterroot Ranges in eastern Idaho, “up to 30 centimeters is possible.”
“So I think it’s going to be very wet,” Duncan said. “Other states in this region obviously aren’t as bad.”
The northern states (Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming) will see storms for Halloween, and snow will be seen in the Rocky Mountains in early November. A storm in early November is expected to bring heavy snow, and temperatures will turn very cold afterward. After a rainy, snowy Thanksgiving, more storms will begin in December. But Christmas is forecast to be “generally fine, dry and very cold”; unseasonably cold temperatures are expected in late January.
“Here we say winter will feel a little more like winter, with the coldest temperatures of the season and average snowfall,” Duncan said. Expect plenty of snow in February, some of which will be caused by the storm forecast for Idaho. A snowstorm in the Plains forecast for mid-February could hit Kansas hardest.
Overall, the southeastern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia) are expected to see “mild and wet weather,” Duncan said. “But that doesn’t mean they’ll escape winter.”
A “sharp cold front” could bring heavy thunderstorms to Tennessee and the southern regions in mid-November, followed by severe frost. It will be clear and dry again before a wet Thanksgiving. A coastal storm in early December could bring rain, wind and “very cold air” as well as freezing temperatures to Florida. A wet Christmas will follow.
“We are seeing some colder weather conditions and very cold and bitter cold weather conditions towards the end of the month (January) in the southeastern states,” Duncan said.
Cold conditions are forecast to continue into February, and a mid-month storm could bring sleet and wet snow to most of the region.
For the southern U.S. states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico) and Texas, “mild precipitation with near to below normal levels” is forecast, Duncan said.
The region is expected to experience abundant rain and wet snow in December, followed by a mostly fine January.
But early February will be “very unsettled, with some snow, possibly … up to 6 inches” in Texas, she said.
According to the almanac, a rainy carnival could also be on the horizon.
Average temperatures and precipitation are expected in the southwestern states (Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah), possibly a departure from last winter’s atmospheric flows. A dry Thanksgiving will be followed by rain and snow showers, and a “nice, dry, very cool” Christmas season is forecast.
Heavy snowfall in the mountains could lead to storms in the east in late January.
With colder temperatures also forecast for the Southeast and Midwest and a major storm in the Northwest in early February, “it looks like late January and early February are a date to mark on the calendar for most of the country,” Duncan said.
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