The National Hurricane Center will issue a potential tropical cyclone warning (PTC 5) starting at 4 p.m. Sunday. The worrisome tropical wave is located just under 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. As soon as the warning is issued, this article will be updated to include the official track forecast.
The NHC will issue advisories for potential Tropical Cyclone No. 5 over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean at 5:00 p.m. AST (21:00 UTC).
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 11 August 2024
The term “potential tropical cyclone” is used when a disturbance has not yet acquired tropical characteristics, but is likely to do so and make landfall within 48 hours. This allows the National Hurricane Center to issue tropical warnings.
PTC Five will continue to move westward and intensify over the coming days. The system will likely be the next named storm, receiving the name Ernesto once maximum sustained winds exceed 39 mph.
By mid-week, a landfall could occur somewhere in the Leeward Islands chain and possibly in Puerto Rico. After that, most available data points to a backwater scenario toward Bermuda. Aside from rough surf and an increased risk of rip currents on the East Coast, impacts in the U.S. are therefore unlikely. Impacts on the Gulf Coast are even less likely. No impacts are currently expected in Louisiana.
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