KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Three years have passed since the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan, moving from insurgency to rule, enforcing their interpretation of Islamic law and seeking to bolster their claim to legitimacy.
Although they are not internationally recognized as the country’s official rulers, the Taliban are happy to meet with senior representatives of major regional powers such as China and Russia. They even took part in UN-sponsored talks, while Afghan women and civil society were denied a seat at the negotiating table. It was a triumph for the Taliban, who see themselves as the country’s only true representatives.
There is no domestic challenge to their rule, nor any foreign interest in supporting one. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza are drawing the attention of the international community, and Afghanistan no longer poses the same terrorist threat as it once did. But challenges remain.
Here are five things you should know about the Taliban in power.
Culture wars and rewards
The Taliban’s supreme leader sits at the top of a pyramid-shaped government system, a paragon of virtue. On one side are mosques and clergy. On the other side is the Kabul administration, which implements the clergy’s decisions and meets with foreign politicians.
“There are different levels of extremism, and the Taliban find themselves in a difficult coalition of ruling hardliners and political pragmatists. This has plunged them into a culture war,” says Javid Ahmad, a nonresident fellow at the Middle East Institute.
The most controversial policies are unlikely to be reversed as long as supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada is in power. And supreme leaders do not retire or step down. They lead until they die.
The idea that different opinions are enough to divide the Taliban is wishful thinking, says Ibraheem Bahiss of the Crisis Group’s South Asia program. “The Taliban are united and will remain a political force for many years to come. They rule as one group, they fight as one group.”
To maintain cohesion and ensure discipline, experienced Taliban moved from the battlefield to the bureaucracy and took over top positions in government and provinces.
“You have to reward them for playing a significant role in the insurgency,” says Ahmad. Other perks can include free reign in running a province, or permission to have a third or fourth wife, a new pickup truck, a share of customs duties or the keys to a house.
Governing the country
Bahiss described this as “the strongest Afghan government in modern times. They can give orders down to the village level.”
Civil servants keep the country running and usually have formal or technical training. But the Taliban who run civilian institutions have no idea how to run such institutions. “I got their qualifications from God,” says Ahmad.
The Taliban’s legitimacy to govern does not come from the Afghans, but from their interpretation of religion and culture, says Leena Rikkila Tamang of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
If a government is defined by the trust and consent of its citizens, recognition by international powers and legitimacy through processes such as elections, then the Taliban cannot be considered a government, she said.
Leave the light on
Afghanistan’s economy is weakened. In 2023, foreign aid still amounted to around 30 percent of the country’s GDP.
The UN has funneled at least $3.8 billion to international aid agencies over the past three years. The United States remains the largest donor, sending more than $3 billion in aid since the Taliban took power. But the U.S. regulator tasked with monitoring the money says much of it is taxed or diverted.
“The further the money is from the source, the less transparency there is,” said Chris Borgeson, deputy inspector general for audits and inspections at the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.
The Taliban also impose a high tax burden. In 2023, they collected around $2.96 billion. But that is not much in a country with enormous and complex needs, and the Taliban do not have the means to stimulate the economy.
The central bank cannot print money. Cash is printed abroad. Interest transactions are prohibited because Islam prohibits interest, and banks do not lend. The Taliban cannot borrow money because they are not recognized as a government, and international banking is cut off.
Natural disasters and the influx of Afghans fleeing Pakistan and under pressure to return home have highlighted Afghanistan’s dependence on foreign aid to meet its basic needs.
It is a big risk if the international community cannot provide such assistance in the future. “We know that Afghanistan will receive less money from the international community in the future,” said Muhammad Waheed, the World Bank’s lead economist for Afghanistan.
Another major blow to the economy was the Taliban’s ban on education and most jobs for women, depriving half of the Afghan population of the spending and taxes that could strengthen the economy.
In addition, the Taliban’s anti-drug policy has “destroyed the livelihoods of thousands of farmers,” said Bahiss. He warned: “Just because the population is complacent now, it will not stay that way.”
Diplomacy and the global stage
Afghanistan is a small country among giants, said Bahiss, and there is a consensus in the region that a stable Afghanistan is better.
But in order to enable the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets and the lifting of sanctions, the support of the West, especially the United States, is crucial.
The Taliban’s ties to China and Russia are important because they are permanent members of the UN Security Council. They also have seats on the UN Credentials Committee, which decides whether to deny or grant legitimacy to a government.
The Gulf states are currently negotiating with the Taliban to protect themselves. “Qatar wants to be seen as a leading intermediary and the United Arab Emirates is taking on that role, particularly by supporting international aviation,” said Bahiss.
A meeting this year between the president of the United Arab Emirates and a Taliban official who has a US bounty on his head for attacks highlighted the growing global divide over how to deal with the Taliban.
The Taliban are keen to highlight their ability to act as a government and to show that there is peace and services in the country, says Weeda Mehran, a lecturer in international relations at Britain’s University of Exeter.
Although Afghanistan has lost dozens of media outlets due to the Taliban crackdown, the country’s rulers have recognized the power of social media. Their content is intended to normalize their approach to Islamic law, and Arabic-language messages are important for this.
“It is a watered-down and whitewashed portrayal of what is happening in the country,” Mehran said.
Safe, but not without danger
The Taliban have secured Afghanistan with checkpoints, armored vehicles and hundreds of thousands of fighters. But the country is not safe, especially for women and minorities, as suicide bombings and other attacks repeatedly result in civilian casualties.
The Islamic State terrorist group has repeatedly attacked the predominantly Shiite district of Dasht-e-Barchi in Kabul. Police have been slow to confirm the attacks and the number of victims. According to media reports, investigations are ongoing, but it is unclear whether anyone has been brought to justice.
A more recent phenomenon is the fears of Afghan women in the face of dress, work and travel regulations imposed by the Taliban, as well as the requirement to have a male guardian when traveling.
“The message to the mainstream media is that everything is fine and that there is good security in Afghanistan under the Taliban,” Mehran said. “My argument would be: Well, whose security are we talking about here?”
Riazat Butt, The Associated Press
