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Three of the sport’s most explosive and expressive stars will not be racing in the Vuelta a España, but don’t worry – that’s a good thing.
A Vuelta a España without Grand Tour dominators and Tour de France podium finishers Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel will bring with it a wild and completely open overall classification dynamic not seen in Grand Tour racing for years.
“It’s difficult for me to make concrete predictions about this Vuelta,” said Sepp Kuss, defending champion of Visma-Lease a Bike.
“I’m starting with a different preparation than in other years,” said Kuss. “I definitely don’t see myself as the top favorite for the overall victory.”
Only a few riders dare to accept the status of favorite in a major tour.
This is definitely the case ahead of the Vuelta a España, with almost a dozen potential winners.
Neither the 2023 champion, Kuss, nor the four-time Grand Tour winner and “Big 4” rider Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) want to take on the burden of being nominated The Driver to keep an eye on.
“The win in Burgos definitely gave me confidence, but I was happiest just to be back on the bike and riding with the guys,” said Kuss, who took an impressive warm-up win in northern Spain last week.
“I know the Vuelta will be a completely different story, with a different route and a different competition,” said Kuss. “A lot can happen in a three-week race.”
The only team confident of its claim to the red jersey ahead of the Vuelta a España is UAE Emirates, whose aim is to complete the Grand Tour title that Pogačar has already put in play at the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France.
Can “GC Kuss” achieve a double victory at the Vuelta a España?
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There are a dozen superdomestiques and podium finishers with the potential to win the red jersey next month that will validate their careers.
The presence of even a single Pogačar, Evenepoel and Vingegaard would have torpedoed the chances of almost all of these almost-men in the overall ranking.
And that is why this Vuelta, although it lacks Pogačar’s drive, Vingegaard’s determination and Evenepoel’s tenacity, will be better without the three leaders.
After a season where everything was focused on such a small line-up, you can expect a month full of new winners, new stories and perhaps a new Grand Tour champion.
Bike‘s selected list of legitimate contenders for the podium at the Vuelta a España (yes, all 12):
- Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe: Roglič, Vlasov, Martínez
- UAE Team Emirates: Yates, Almeida
- Visma-Lease a Bike: Kiss
- Ineos Grenadiers: Rodríguez, Arensman
- EF Education EasyPost: Carapaz
- Soudal Quick-Step: Landa
- Decathlon Ag2r-La Mondiale: O’Connor
- Bahrain victorious: Tiberi
Also consider: Mas, Quintana (both Movistar), Geoghegan Hart, Skjelmose (both Lidl-Trek), McNulty (UAE Emirates), Woods, Riccitello (Israel Premier Tech), Gall (Decathlon Ag2r-La Mondiale), Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Poole (DSM Firmenich-PostNL), Martin (Cofidis).
Without Pogačar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel, a power vacuum arises at the top
This year’s Tour de France has clearly shown how strong Pogačar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel have a grip on modern stage racing.
The fearsome trio outshone all their rivals, winning 8 of the 21 stages of a race contested over two classes.
Fourth-placed João Almeida (UAE) was ten minutes away from the podium at the end of one of the most competitive Tour de France classifications of the last century.
There will be no such dominance in the Vuelta peloton this month.
It is difficult to filter out Kuss, Roglič, Almeida, Adam Yates (UAE Emirates), Richard Carapaz (EF Education EasyPost), Carlos Rodríguez (Inoes Grenadiers), Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step) and Dani Martínez (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) from the great mess of potential Vuelta winners.
Kuss and Roglič bring pedigree and history to the Vuelta, but not the confidence of another red jersey.
Defending champion Kuss doesn’t dare call himself a favorite after being removed from the start list for the Tour de France due to COVID.
The brave breakaway that paved the way for Kuss to take the overall win last year will not be so easy to repeat this summer, now that he has a number 1 on his tail.
Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe is similarly hesitant about the hopes of its three-time Vuelta winner Roglič.
Roglič is not guaranteed to be part of the ‘Big 4’ after his difficult season adjusting to a new team was further marred by a horrific crash at the Tour de France.
“We will not hide, but fight aggressively for the overall classification,” said Roglič’s Red Bull Bora Hansgohe director Rold Aldag. “However, we will have to wait and see to what extent we succeed in doing this.”
“After all, the crash injuries and the five-week break from racing were not the ideal preparation for a major tour for Primož and Aleks (Vlasov),” said Aldag before the Vuelta.
Putting together the winning combination of leader and team
Team Emirates brings momentum and potential to The Vuelta with the double attack of Almeida and Yates, who are riding with the wind at their backs after finishing fourth and sixth respectively in the Tour de France.
Yates and Almeida see a Vuelta without team talisman Pogačar and the Spanish sensation Juan Ayuso as a golden opportunity.
“The Tour went perfectly according to plan. I think we rode really well personally and as a team and got the result we wanted,” Yates said this week.
“I think if João and I are in top form or one of us is in the race, we will make the most of it,” he said. “The team we have here is top class and I think and hope that we will fight for big results in the next few weeks.”
Unlike Visma and Red Bull, the Emirati team fancy themselves in a good position, and the peloton will likely rely on Almeida and Yates’ mega-team of mega-domestiques to control the race.
Carapaz is the third and last former Grand Tour winner on the start list for the Vuelta a España after Roglič and Kuss, and the Ecuadorian pilot is betting everything on victory.
Can the EF Education-EasyPost “Vuelta Eight” team keep up with the “super teams” of the peloton?
It’s hard to imagine something like this happening.
When superdomestiques and second leaders become captains of grand tours
Visma-Lease a Bike, Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe and UAE Emirates seem ready to determine the overall classification of this Vuelta a España.
Vuelta a España ‘domestics’ and co-leaders such as Martínez, Vlasov (both Red Bull), Brandon McNulty, Jay Vine (both UAE Emirates), Steven Kruijswijk and Cian Uijtdebroeks (both Visma-Lease a Bike) form a Murderer’s Row of talent and all have the calibre to lead most other teams.
But unlike all previous major tours in 2023 and 2024, none of the super team’s “big four” will dominate history.
Instead, the pressure is on long-term superdomestiques and second-tier executives like Kuss, Yates and Landa are expected to step in.
The absence of Pogačar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel leaves an atmosphere of uncertainty in the peloton and a hint of opportunity for many of their performance-hungry and result-oriented teammates.
While it is a shame that season-killer Pogačar will not be racing this Vuelta a España in search of a personal Grand Tour victory, perhaps “Couch Peloton” should be relieved that he is staying home.
The dangers of drinking alcohol in the Vuelta’s “last chance” bar
This summer could be a bit chaotic.
A route full of mountain finishes starting as early as the fourth stage and the almost inevitable heatwave in late summer make the Vuelta a massive tour compared to the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France.
And it’s not as if the Vuelta peloton is completely fresh and ready for a race that features almost 20 percent more climbing than the Tour and a whopping 33 percent more than the Giro.
As always, the Vuelta is teeming with riders seeking redemption from early-season setbacks or to forget the disappointments of previous grand tours.
Anyone who goes for a drink in the “Last Chance Saloon” at the Vuelta is suffering from late-season exhaustion and incomplete preparation.
And a lack of experience is clouding the chances of many other Vuelta riders.
Max Poole (DSM Firmenich-PostNL), Matthew Riccitello (Israel Premier Tech) and even more established competitors such as Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain-Victorious) and Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers) could be undone by overconfidence, self-doubt, overexuberance or malnutrition.
The red jersey could change shoulders a dozen times in a peloton without a power structure and a Course without rhythm.
No GC hierarchy until the second week?
A look at the Vuelta road book suggests that the hierarchy may not emerge until the second week of the race.
The opening TT stage through Lisbon on Saturday will create a nominal structure but will not open up any important gaps.
The finish at the top of Pico Villuercas in stage four is full of multi-digit ramps that will make it difficult for some riders to lift their legs, but it may be too early in the race for multi-minute attacks on the general classification.
The ninth stage before the first rest day of the race will set the first tone.
Only after the three category 1 climbs and the wild final descent of this sun-scorched stage in the Sierra Nevada, with its vertical ascents, could something become clear in the chaotic confusion of the Vuelta’s overall classification contenders.
Based on their recent form, Pogačar, Vingegaard and Evenpoel would have red jersey out of sight at this time.
On this occasion, let us be thankful that the three dominators remain on the sofa.
