Earlier this week we outlined three scenarios that would guarantee Billy Napier’s Return as head coach of Florida football in 2025. If Napier wins any of his final five games or can be ranked in the top ten, he’s probably safe.
Although the Gator administration states that Napier is safer than most fans believe, there are three scenarios in which the administration could be forced to cut ties.
The last time we even mentioned UCF On this site, our mentions were inundated with angry Knights fans who were sad that we didn’t idolize the ground they walked on.
Just like Joe Hendrixif you say their name, they will appear.
So if you’re a Knights fan reading this, welcome, make yourself at home, and listen very carefully to the following: Is it within the realm of possibility that you can come to the Swamp and beat Florida? 100%. KJ Jefferson came to Gainesville and did it last year.
But ask yourself this question: If Florida were to play Texas Tech instead another Big 12 Would a team that went 6-6 and lost in the 2023 regular season fare well in Gainesville?
As unhappy as Florida fans are with Gainesville’s recruiting, the worst class Florida has had since 2021 was 18th nationally. The best class UCF has put together during the same time period was 39th.
UCF ranked 18th with its transfer portal class last offseason, while Florida ranked 22nd.
The point of all this is that Napier will still have a more talented roster on paper, and if he loses this home game, he’ll be coming off a week off while UCF has to play Colorado The week before, he has no one to blame but himself, and it’s hard to imagine Gator Nation saying, “Hey, next time we’ll get them.”
When predicting the first half of Florida’s schedule, it’s not unrealistic to predict a 5-2 start. Let’s just assume Florida beats Miami, Samford, State of MississippiUCF and Tennessee in the defeat against Texas A&M And Kentucky.
You can swap them around however you want, but if it goes like this, most fans would be happy overall. Just like fans were happy last year when Florida started 5-2 and lost Utah and Kentucky, but a victory over Tennessee.
Then it went into free fall and that’s why we, like everyone else in the country, have to ask ourselves out loud how safe Napier will be in 2024.
The final five games are brutal. You may have heard that once out of 73 times this offseason. But the truth is, with a program like Florida, you can’t expect to go through that ordeal at 0-5 and come out unscathed. If Florida loses its final five games, it will likely be bowl-less for the second year in a row, and it’s hard to imagine even the most patient fans sitting idly by.
You may now say you are willing to be patient. Check back with us in November.
“You guys are just clickbait garbage, I knew it.”
Breathe and listen.
No one in the Gator circles claims DJ Lagway is unhappy. By all accounts, he is making good progress and is willing to wait his turn to take the reins in 2025.
This article simply examines scenarios in which the advocates who claim to be patient might lose their patience.
If Florida does go 6-6, Napier is likely safe for another year thanks to Lagway. He’s the golden ticket, and most people will probably argue, “Well, you have to give Napier at least one season with Lagway.”
If there were odds on Lagway being the starting quarterback for Florida in 2025, we would probably put them at -2000 (clear favorite).
But this is modern college football, and nothing is guaranteed. Lagway could get homesick, find he’s not as compatible with Napier as he thought, get frustrated when others decide to transfer, or get a NIL offer he can’t refuse.
We all think of these scenarios, but if you try to think of ways Napier gets kicked out in 2025, this would be one of them.
