There will always be questions about how power hitters age, and some teams will be skeptical Pete Alonso‘s asking price this winter has aged terribly after megadeals involving first basemen like Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Chris Davis.
Still, since entering the league in 2019, Alonso ranks second only to Aaron Judge with 215 home runs and leads the entire sport with 557 RBIs. Few hitters in the league can score as many runs as Alonso, so he will be interesting to watch, even if his 2024 season was rather disappointing.
Alonso, according to Joel Sherman of The New York Postturned down a seven-year, $158 million offer from the Mets last June, a deal that would have included the 2024 season. Considering he’s making $20.5 million in his final year of arbitration, he hasn’t lost much in the short term.
But a lot has changed since that offer: David Stearns is now in charge of the Mets’ baseball activities and Alonso was no longer represented by Apex Baseball, but by Boras.
The hitter could earn more than the $22.60 AAV he would have received with the proposed contract extension. But we’re skeptical that Alonso will get seven guaranteed years on the open market. Six isn’t even certain.
#2: Corbin Burnes – RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Age in 2025: 30
Eligible for the qualified offer? Yes
The Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers in spring training rather than waiting until the trade deadline, which is crucial because it allows them to make him a qualifying offer before free agency.
He will turn it down, but it ensures that the O’s won’t be left empty-handed if new owner David Rubenstein doesn’t authorize general manager Mike Elias to raise the funds needed to re-sign Burnes.
Meanwhile, Burnes was an All-Star for the fourth time in his career this season and even started in the minors. He will give the Orioles a better chance of competing in the postseason this year because they have a true ace.
However, in November, Burnes will be the best pitcher to reach free agency since Gerrit Cole in the 2019–20 offseason.
Cole had an incredible final season with the Astros before hitting the open market, and he was a year younger than Burnes. But Burnes is definitely more successful than Cole was when he became a free agent.
Look at their numbers from the last four seasons before free agency (and keep in mind that Burnes is still finishing his 2024 season):
Cole (born 2016): 54-32, 3.31 ERA, 130 ERA+, 3.17 FIP, 1.118 WHIP, 896 strikeouts, 19.3 fWAR, 731 2/3 innings pitched
Burnes (2021-2024): 45-25, 2.88 ERA, 143 ERA+, 3.05 FIP, 1.007 WHIP, 809 strikeouts, 18.5 fWAR, 706 1/3 innings pitched
If Cole received a nine-year, $324 million contract – with an opt-out clause after the fifth year that forces the Yankees to either agree to a tenth season for $36 million or let him return to the open market – why shouldn’t Burnes receive a similar contract?
#1: Juan Soto – RF/LF, New York Yankees
Age in 2025: 26
Eligible for the qualified offer? Yes
Few players in MLB history have reached free agency in their mid-20s and been anywhere near as successful as Juan Soto will be this winter. The only comparable players are Alex Rodriguez, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. That trio received record-breaking contracts, and Soto probably will, too.
Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million contract last offseason threw everything into disarray, but with deferrals, the current value of his contract with the Dodgers is about $460.8 million.
Expect Soto’s contract to surpass that amount. Not only will he likely get more than $46 million per season, but since he’s younger and doesn’t have the same injury risk as Ohtani, Soto could also get the 13 years that Harper got as a free agent.
It’s hard to believe that the Yankees let Soto go, but it’s the worst-kept secret in the sport that cross-town rivals Mets also have their eye on the four-time All-Star.
And one should not rule out the possibility that a team like the Giants – who have been turned down in recent years in their pursuit of other superstars – is involved.
It’s not often that teams get the chance to sign a future Hall of Famer who still has most of his prime years ahead of him, but all eyes will be on Juan Soto this winter as the clear top free agent of the 2024-2025 class.
