Defensive clues
26 August 2024
Dallas and San Francisco looked better a week ago
I don’t think I’ll be the first fantasy coach to draft a defense this year. At best, I’ll probably be the fourth or fifth. Even my favorite picks have flaws that were magnified last weekend.
The biggest and most disappointing news came out of Dallas. DaRon Bland has a stress fracture in his foot and will have surgery that will keep him out of action for 6-8 weeks. At the end of that schedule, he would miss half the season. He’s only one player, but that one player led the league with 9 interceptions, 5 of which he returned for touchdowns a year ago, so that’s a pretty big deal.
Dallas at least gets Trevon Diggs back from injury. Diggs tore his ACL last preseason, but in 2021 he was the All-Pro corner in Dallas’ secondary, intercepting the most passes in the league and returning two of them for touchdowns. They will also (potentially) have a top-10 pass rush led by Micah Parson and Demarcus Lawrence (pictured). Those guys had 18 of the team’s 46 sacks a year ago.
But the secondary with Bland and Diggs has made the Dallas defense a key fantasy asset over the past three years. During that time, the Cowboys have 5 more interceptions than any other defense (59, or nearly 20 per year) and 6 more touchdowns (19, or more than 6 per year). That’s a lot of players for one lineup. (Table sorted by total number of defensive touchdowns.)
| FANTASY DEFENCES, 2021-2023 | ||
|---|---|---|
| defense | INTs | TDs |
| Dallas | 59 | 19 |
| Miami | 37 | 13 |
| New England | 52 | 13 |
| Indianapolis | 44 | 11 |
| Philadelphia | 38 | 10 |
| Cleveland | 42 | 9 |
| Arizona | 35 | 8 |
| Jacksonville | 37 | 8 |
| City | 34 | 8 |
| Las Vegas | 25 | 8 |
| Minnesota | 42 | 8 |
| Atlanta | 30 | 7 |
| buffalo | 54 | 7 |
| Carolina | 27 | 7 |
| Green Bay | 42 | 7 |
| New York Giants | 39 | 7 |
| New York Jets | 36 | 7 |
| Houston | 47 | 6 |
| New Orleans | 43 | 6 |
| San Francisco | 51 | 6 |
| Seattle | 36 | 6 |
| Washington | 28 | 6 |
| Chicago | 44 | 5 |
| Cincinnati | 43 | 5 |
| Tennessee | 36 | 5 |
| Baltimore | 41 | 4 |
| LA Chargers | 34 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh | 49 | 4 |
| Tampa Bay | 40 | 4 |
| Denver | 39 | 3 |
| Detroit | 39 | 3 |
| LA Rams | 45 | 2 |
Another reasonable candidate for a top defense is San Francisco. Their strength is the pass rush – their 140 sacks over the last three seasons are more than all but six other teams. They lost a couple of pass rushers in the offseason, Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw, but added two players who were even more productive in that area last year (Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos). They seemed like they were well-positioned in that area.
But San Francisco tried an unconventional approach these days, starting its core players in the final exhibition game, and both Floyd and Gross-Matos left the game with sprained knees. Those injuries have not yet been updated, but it’s fair to say their status for the start of the season is questionable.
In the latest update, both Dallas and San Francisco have been downgraded a bit. Both are still in the top 5 or 6 depending on the scoring system, but they aren’t the surefire choices they once were. The Jets are arguably the best pick on defense (and have been since the magazine), but for some reason they traded Haason Reddick, who the Eagles traded away because he wanted a new contract, which they weren’t willing to give him, but they’re not willing to give him a new contract. So he’s held out all summer demanding a trade. The Jets still look pretty good, but they would look a lot better if they handled this situation differently.
I know some leagues have abandoned the defensive position. I’m not a fan of it; I think it’s another area of strategy that makes the game fun. But I think part of that strategy is to wait to select the 5th or 6th defense, which — based on recent developments — could be about as good as the first defenses selected in most leagues. Cleveland, Houston; those are some of the defenses I’ll be considering in my drafts this week.
–Andy Richardson
