The Chiefs’ first preseason game has begun, and yet for a change we’re still focusing on the Royals because they’re in the race for the playoffs. Kansas City currently holds the third Wild Card spot, but is only half a game behind the Twins in second place. This series could allow them to move past Minnesota and even close the gap on first-place Cleveland.
Kansas City Royals (64-52) vs. Minnesota Twins (65-52) at Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Royals: 4.81 runs scored/game (9th in MLB), 3.99 runs allowed/game (4th)
Twins: 4.84 runs scored/game (8th), 4.38 runs allowed/game (16th)
The Royals have been criticized for crushing the White Sox and playing mediocre against everyone else, but the Twins have done the same. They have a 12-1 record against the weak White Sox and 53-51 against other teams, including 27-36 against teams with a .500 or better record.
The Twins have a record of 11-10 since the All-Star break, although they have lost four of their last six games.
Expected starting lineup of the Twins
| Starting line-up | P.A. | Human Resources | SB | BA | OBA | SLG | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starting line-up | P.A. | Human Resources | SB | BA | OBA | SLG | fWAR |
| SS Willi Castro (S) | 475 | 8 | 12 | .260 | .343 | .402 | 2.9 |
| LF Trevor Larnach (L) | 275 | 11 | 4 | .245 | .320 | .420 | 0.7 |
| 3B Royce Lewis (R) | 156 | 14 | 0 | .272 | .353 | .647 | 1.7 |
| DH Matt Wallner (L) | 112 | 7 | 1 | .273 | .393 | .620 | 1.1 |
| CF Byron Buxton (R) | 332 | 16 | 6 | .278 | .337 | .533 | 3.3 |
| 1B Carlos Santana (S) | 424 | 15 | 3 | .245 | .328 | .423 | 2.2 |
| RF Max Kepler (L) | 345 | 7 | 1 | .263 | .314 | .399 | 1.2 |
| C Ryan Jeffers (R) | 351 | 17 | 3 | .228 | .309 | .453 | 1.4 |
| 2B Austin Martin (R) | 176 | 1 | 7 | .234 | .309 | .329 | -0.4 |
| bank | P.A. | Human Resources | SB | BA | OBA | SLG | fWAR |
| C Christian Vazquez (R) | 230 | 6 | 3 | .225 | .257 | .352 | 1.0 |
| IF José Miranda (R) | 318 | 9 | 2 | .308 | .349 | .488 | 1.9 |
| IF Kyle Farmer (R) | 158 | 0 | 3 | .184 | .291 | .257 | 0.1 |
| BY Manuel Margot (R) | 262 | 4 | 4 | .238 | .294 | .346 | -0.1 |
The Twins have hit the 10th most home runs in baseball, but only 46 percent of them have come on the road, where they average just 4.67 runs per game compared to 5.01 at home.
Byron Buxton has hit seven home runs in 17 games since the All-Star break. Royce Lewis was injured on Opening Day against the Royals and missed some more time in July, but since returning he has a batting average of .234/.351/.575 with four home runs in 15 games. Jose Miranda set an MLB record with 12 consecutive hits in early July, but has only a batting average of .200/.238/.275 since the break. Matt Wallner has a batting average of .284/.404/.654 against left-handers this year.
Expected pitching duels
| Monday, August 12, 6:40 CT | EPOCH | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, August 12, 6:40 CT | EPOCH | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
| RHP Pablo Lopez | 4.74 | 3.83 | 129.0 | 10.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| RHP Brady Singer | 3.03 | 3.65 | 130.2 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Tuesday, August 13, 6:40 CT | EPOCH | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
| RHP Randy Dobnak | 5.87 | 3.31 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 0.0 |
| RHP Seth Lugo | 2.72 | 3.45 | 155.2 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 3.3 |
| Wednesday, August 14, 12:10pm CT | EPOCH | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
| RHP Bailey Ober | 3.52 | 3.69 | 128.0 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| LHP Cole Ragan | 3.27 | 2.97 | 140.1 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 3.8 |
The Twins have not officially named their starters for Tuesday and Wednesday. Pablo López has a career ERA of 2.41 in five starts against the Royals. He has the 11th-lowest walk rate in baseball but the eighth-highest home run rate. In his last start, a loss to the Cubs, he allowed four runs in five innings, but in his four previous starts he had allowed two or fewer runs. He boasts a 94 mph fastball that opponents are batting just .179 against and a sweeper with a 33 percent whiff rate.
Bailey Ober gave up eight runs in less than two innings in his first start of the season in Kansas City. He has a 1.76 ERA in his last nine starts and has won his last four games. Ober has a 4.13 ERA on the road and a 2.78 ERA at home. He throws a 92 mph fastball, but opponents are batting just .144 against his changeup.
Twins bullpen
| Open-plan office | EPOCH | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open-plan office | EPOCH | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
| RHP Jhoan Duran | 3.38 | 3.74 | 37.1 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| RHP Griffin Jax | 1.97 | 2.15 | 50.1 | 11.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| RHP Jorge Alcala | 2.25 | 3.54 | 44.0 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.6 |
| RHP Cole Sands | 3.33 | 2.84 | 54.0 | 10.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| LHP Caleb Thielbar | 6.12 | 4.32 | 32.1 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 0.0 |
| RHP Trevor Richards | 4.82 | 4.46 | 56.0 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 0.1 |
| RHP Josh Winder | 3.86 | 2.46 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| RHP Scott Blewett | – | – | 0.0 | – | – | – |
Jhoan Duran has converted 16 of 17 save opportunities this year with a 100-mph fastball, the second fastest in the game. Jorge Alcala and Griffin Jax also provide excitement with fastballs over 90 mph. Alcala has allowed five runs in his last 8 1/3 innings. Left-handers are hitting just .238/.324/.302 against Caleb Thielbar. Former Royals pitcher Scott Blewett was called up from the Twins last weekend.
The Twins have won five of seven games against the Royals so far, but these games are more important because both teams are in the running. The Royals have a chance to tie and make a strong statement in the Wild Card race, but their bullpen will have to be up to the challenge against a good Twins offense.
Opinion poll
How will the Royals fare in this series against the Twins?
-
7%
Royals win 3-0
(11 votes)
-
59%
Royals win 2 of 3
(92 votes)
-
27%
Twins make 2 of 3
(43 votes)
155 votes in total
Vote now
