According to the statements of the key players, McLaren did not expect to be where they are today in the Formula 1 rankings.
At the end of the summer break, the Woking-based team sits second in the F1 Constructors’ Championship, just 42 points behind Red Bull. That means it is mathematically possible for them to overtake Red Bull in the standings when racing next starts at the Dutch Grand Prix later this month. Drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have achieved 12 Grand Prix podiums between them and each driver has won a Grand Prix this year.
Although they enjoy their success, they never expected to get here.
For example, McLaren CEO Zak Brown said during the summer break that he was “surprised” by the team’s placing this season. “If I were to sit here and say I’m not surprised, that would be disingenuous,” said Brown. BBC Sports“Red Bull had such an advantage over everyone and Mercedes was so dominant.
“I had a feeling we were closing the gap. Did I think we would be here in the summer break and just one race away from taking the lead?
“This race would have to be about first, second and fastest lap, and do I think that’s going to happen? No. But if we keep the same trajectory that we’ve been on for the last six, seven races, we’ll be where we need to be by the end of the year,” Brown continued. “I thought we could be where we are now by 2025. I didn’t think we’d be where we are now in 2024. But I’m not complaining.”
Another reason why their strong first half of the season could be a surprise?
The relative lack of upgrades the team has brought to the track.
As team principal Andrea Stella noted, the team has not made any significant changes to the MCL38 since the Miami Grand Prix. “In some ways, I’m surprised we’ve been so competitive considering we haven’t brought many new parts to the track since Miami,” Stella said recently.
The teams’ submissions each race week confirm this fact. Before each race, F1 teams must submit a “Car Presentation Submission” to the FIA. Article 19.1 c) of the Sporting Regulations highlights the requirements: “Each competitor must submit to the Media Delegate a summary document containing the names and a brief description of all major aerodynamic and bodywork components and assemblies not used in a previous Competition or TCC (Testing of Current Cars) and intended to be used in the Competition.”
As we wrote from Miami at the time, McLaren’s contribution this week was “extensive,” as they unveiled ten new components for the MCL38. While one of these, an improved wing, was described as “track-specific,” the rest were aimed at improving performance.
Driver Oscar Piastri expressed his hope at this week’s FIA press conference that the upgrades would be a “step forward” for the team. “I think it will be a decent step forward. We want to try to stay on the winning track from last year. But of course the closer you get to the limit of these cars and these regulations, the more difficult it becomes. So we’ll see,” Piastri said. “But yes, I think the upgrades we did last year always worked well. So, yes, hopefully we can have a similar effect this year.”
They undoubtedly represented progress, as these improvements helped Lando Norris to his first Grand Prix victory.
However, if you look at the vehicle presentations submitted by McLaren since then, you see many race weekends with minimal or no “track-specific” upgrades.
At the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, McLaren used two new components, an improved rear wing and an improved beam wing, both of which were described as “track-specific”. At the Monaco Grand Prix, McLaren again made track-specific changes to the rear wing and beam wing.
The team has not provided any updates for either the Canadian Grand Prix or the Spanish Grand Prix.
The next upgrades were made at the Austrian Grand Prix, where the team noted changes to the front wing and front suspension. Both were described as “performance” upgrades rather than track-specific improvements, and were aimed at improving “aerodynamic loading” and “maximizing improved flow characteristics.”
McLaren identified five upgrades for the British Grand Prix, all of which were circuit-specific. These included changes to the front wing, engine cover and several changes to the beam wing. While no upgrades were identified for the Hungarian Grand Prix, McLaren added a few new components for the Belgian Grand Prix, all of which were circuit-specific.
So there you have it: seven race weekends and the majority of the identified upgrades to the MCL38 were track-specific changes.
This leaves plenty of room for further developments in the second half of the season, as Stella recently noted. “This means that the upgrade in Miami was obviously great, but there will be some more upgrades to come in the second half of the season,” said the McLaren boss.
In addition, McLaren has another development arrow in its proverbial quiver: the Aerodynamic Testing Regulations (ATR). As set out in Appendix 7 of the Sporting Regulations, these regulations stipulate how much wind tunnel time and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) capacity each team can use for a given ATR period. These are determined by the previous year’s Constructors’ Championship rankings, which apply to the first six months of the year, and are then re-determined at the end of June according to the current standings.
These work on a sliding scale, with teams receiving more ATR time the further down the leaderboard they are. The team in seventh place will receive “100%” of the allotted time, with teams behind them receiving 105% for eighth place, 110% for ninth place and 115% for tenth place.
The top team, meanwhile, only receives 70% of the playing time allocated to it.
By finishing fourth last season, McLaren had accumulated more ATR time than Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari, the three teams that finished ahead of them. When this figure was recalculated at the end of June – which determines how much time teams have in the final six months of this year – McLaren was third behind Red Bull and Ferrari.
This means that they have more time at their disposal in the coming months than these two teams.
Stella pointed out that this was another advantage for her.
“As far as the ATR goes, I’m not sure. In fact, Red Bull has done more development on track so far, in terms of the number of physical parts delivered, if you look at the submissions, than we have,” Stella said. “But I can definitely speak for McLaren. We now seem to be able to monetise some of the development we have accumulated and I would expect to have new parts several times for the second half of the season.”
Of course, simply bringing upgrades to the track every week is no guarantee of success. You can just ask Ferrari how they got on with their upgrades to the SF-24 after Monaco. McLaren will have to get the upgrades right to improve performance.
But if that happens, be careful.
