When Tinder, a mobile dating app, launched on American college campuses in 2012, it quickly became a hit. Although online dating had been around since Match.com, a website for lonely hearts that launched in 1995, the app had long struggled to shake off its image of desperation. But Tinder made it easy and fun by allowing users to scroll through the photos of countless potential dates with a simple swipe.
30% of American adults have used an online dating service
Soon, Tinder and its competitors had changed the way couples met each other. A report published last year by the Pew Research Center found that 30% of American adults had used an online dating service, including more than half of 18- to 29-year-olds. One in five couples of that age had met through such a service. Usage skyrocketed during the pandemic as lonely singles searched for partners during lockdowns. The market capitalization of Bumble, a Tinder competitor, soared to $13 billion on its first day of trading in February 2021. Later that year, the value of Match Group, which owns Tinder, Hinge and dozens of other dating services, reached nearly $50 billion. According to research firm Business of Apps, about 350 million people worldwide now have a dating app on their phone, up from 250 million in 2018. In June, the Tokyo government even announced it would launch its own matchmaking app to bring singles in the city together.
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But lately, online dating has lost its appeal. Last year, the apps were downloaded 237 million times worldwide, down from 287 million in 2020. According to Sensor Tower, another research firm, the number of people who use them at least once a month has fallen from 154 million in 2021 to 137 million in the second quarter of this year. On August 7, Bumble reported revenue growth of just 3% year-on-year for the April-June quarter and cut its full-year forecast to 1-2%. The company’s shares plunged by a third in after-hours trading. On July 30, Match Group reported its revenue grew just 4% in the same quarter. Both companies’ stocks have plummeted since Bumble’s IPO, reflecting users’ growing disillusionment with dating apps, declining willingness to pay for them – and growing interest in offline alternatives.
Let’s start with the disillusionment. Apps that were once fun have become sources of frustration for many. The network effects that originally fueled services like Tinder, where a growing choice of partners attracted more and more users, have now driven them to despair. Users complain of spending hours sifting through tens of thousands of profiles. Half of the women surveyed by Pew said they were overwhelmed by the volume of messages they received. It doesn’t help that 84 percent of Tinder users are men. The same goes for 61 percent of users of Bumble, which is aimed at women. Many users also fear scams.
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Younger adults in particular are weary of the apps. A survey commissioned last year by news site Axios found that only a fifth of American college students use them at least once a month. “It’s not fun, it’s so superficial, and it’s just really exhausting,” complains one young influencer on TikTok, a short-form video app. “I’m kind of fed up with it,” sums up Wunmi Williams, a 27-year-old who hasn’t been able to find a partner on a dating app after years of swiping and matching. In a sign of growing desperation, the Marriage Pact, an annual event that pairs participants with a “backup partner” in case their future romantic endeavors fail, has expanded to 88 college campuses across America.
All of this explains why dating app developers have such a hard time convincing their users to spend money—the second reason for their lackluster performance. To increase their profit margins, dating apps offer paid upgrades to supplement their meager advertising revenue. Hinge has a separate feed of popular profiles you might like, but charges $3.99 for a “rose” before you can chat with them. Tinder’s paid plans range from $17.99 a month (which gives you unlimited swipes and changing your location) to a whopping $499 a month (which lets you see the app’s most popular profiles and message users you don’t have a match with).
Have the yuck
Online dating may no longer seem desperate, but users seem to fear it could lead to them paying for it. The proportion of people willing to spend money on dating apps is declining. The number of paying users on Tinder has declined for seven consecutive quarters. Men are more willing to pay money, which could exacerbate the widespread feeling among women of being bombarded with messages on the apps.
But the biggest threat to the future of dating apps is the growing proportion of singles looking for love offline. Last year, some began wearing an aquamarine-colored ring made by a startup called Pear to show they were open to courtship. Thursday, a company that organizes in-person events for singles, has expanded its service to around 30 cities from Stockholm to Sydney. Its app only works on Thursday, when the events take place.
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Romance isn’t just limited to bars. Running clubs have become a meeting place for athletes. Cooking classes have also become a place to look for partners, says Julia Hartz, head of ticketing platform Eventbrite. Attendance at singles events increased by 42% between 2022 and 2023. “You build a bond with someone, you have an experience, even if it’s not the love of your life,” Casey Lewis, a youth culture blogger, says of such events.
Dating apps are looking for ways to lure their users back. Some are looking to spice things up with artificial intelligence (AI). Whitney Wolfe Herd, the founder of Bumble, recently mused that the future of flirting could involve one person’s AI bot going on “dates” with another person’s. A new app, Volar, offers just that.
In time, society may be ready to leave matchmaking to the machines – but it’s hard to imagine that strategy paying off just yet. A more promising approach for dating apps may instead be to focus on narrower markets. Grindr, an app for gay men, continues to grow rapidly. The same goes for Feeld, which is aimed at polyamory. In recent years, Match Group has launched apps aimed at gay men (Archer), single parents (Stir), ethnic minorities (BLK, Chispa) and snobs (The League). Revenue from this portfolio of brands grew 17% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024.
Such apps not only offer a smaller pool of partners, but also serve as a community for like-minded people. Grindr, for example, acts as a guide for tourists looking for gay bars and as a source of information on HIV. The company says its average user sends 50 messages a day, about as many as messaging service WhatsApp. Success in this regard may explain why Lidiane Jones, Bumble’s chief executive, has said she wants to make her company known as a “connection company, not a dating company.” Carrying out such a rebranding could prove difficult. But love has never been a simple business.
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