The NL is on the weak side. Does that phrase sound familiar? I used it a lot before the trade deadline, but that dynamic has changed unfavorably for the SF Giants.
For a moment on Tuesday night, it felt like the Giants were finally getting a win. They haven’t done that often this season. In fact, it was an uphill battle just to get to a .500 record.
The Giants took an early 4-0 lead against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday. However, that lead didn’t last long and the Nationals were able to fight their way back to winning ways, causing the Giants to fall back below .500.
At the end of June, you could argue that the NL was on the weaker side. At that point, the Giants were comfortably in the Wild Card race with a combined record of 41-44. It was not an ideal position, and they were still climbing the standings.
However, the St. Louis Cardinals (43-40) and the San Diego Padres (46-42) were in second and third place in the Wild Card rankings and were not so far ahead of San Francisco. All it would take is a winning streak and the Giants would be much closer in the table.
That dynamic has shifted, and so has the math. The Giants now have a similar winning percentage (.496) to what they had at the end of June. They’re still within striking distance, but it will take a strong finish to even get back into the Wild Card race.
With a record of 57-58, the Giants are 4.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves (60-52) in the third wild card spot. There are also three teams between the Giants and Atlanta.
If Atlanta’s record remains consistent for the rest of the season, they would finish the season with 87 wins. If that’s a floor for the Wild Card race, the Giants would need to go 30-17 in the final 47 games of the season. That’s a .638 winning percentage in the final stretch for a team that’s one game under .500 and has a run differential of -14.
Of course, that 87-win threshold could be a false assumption if all other factors are held constant. It’s a data point, but even if we assume they need to win 85 games to make the playoffs, they still need to play better than they have so far.
Things aren’t looking the same in the NL as they did last year, when two teams with 84 wins each made the playoffs and one of them, the Arizona Diamondbacks, reached the World Series.
The August schedule certainly favors the Giants, as they still have two games against the Nationals and a series of three games each against the Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins.
Once the calendar turns to September, the schedule becomes much more challenging. The Giants will need to get some wins in August to have a chance in September.
Could they do it? Absolutely. The odds are not in their favor, but it’s a possibility. With the NL playing stronger than expected, the Giants need to start playing better today if they want to have a chance later in the season.
